Monday, April 07, 2014

Intelligence Report gives BJP four out of seven in Delhi

After various opinion polls have predicted a BJP surge all over the country including in Delhi, the intelligence agencies seem to have followed suit.

In the customary pre-election survey exercise done by the agencies in Delhi, a saffron sweep with four of the capital’s seven seats going to the BJP is predicted. The survey has given Chandni Chowk (Harsh Vardhan), East Delhi (Maheish Girri), South Delhi (Ramesh Bidhuri) and West Delhi (Parvesh Verma) to the BJP, while the Congress, which at present holds all seven seats, could win one—New Delhi—where former Union
Minister Ajay Maken is recontesting from.

The AAP, which had a remarkable debut in the Assembly polls last December, will fare badly and win only one seat—North West Delhi, where former minister Rakhi Birla is its candidate. The seventh seat, North East Delhi, will face a tough three-way fight. BJP has fielded Bhojpuri actor Manoj Tewari, the Congress has re-nominated J P Aggarwal and AAP has fielded JNU professor Anand Kumar from here.

The survey has listed price rise, lack of infrastructure and alleged arrogance of UPA leadership as put off factors for Delhi voters, who will express their lack of trust in the party. The agencies carried out the survey with a sample size of 3,500 voters in each of the constituencies. An exclusive look at the findings:

Chandni Chowk

In Chandi Chowk areas, Delhi BJP chief Harsh Vardhan is winning by large numbers of votes. There was infighting in the BJP the day his name was announced, however, the party high command interfered and shorted out differences them. And the entire party cadre at booth level is working in favour of him.  The Congress leader Kapil Sibal is facing anti-incumbency wave. The residents are unhappy with him as he rarely visited his constituencies in last five years and tried to connect with people.

Though, Janata Dal (United)’s only MLA in the Delhi Assembly Shoaib Iqbal and Jama Masjid Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari has declared their support to him, it will not be a deciding factor. But Syed Yahya Bukhari, the younger brother of Shahi Imam, opposed any decision to endorse Congress and appealed Muslim community to vote for AAP. Despite, the journalist-turned-politician Ashutosh has made several jan sabha and road shows, the people are not very enthusiastic about him.

East Delhi

In East Delhi, BJP candidate Maheish Girri has good edge over Mahatma Gandhi's grandson Rajmohan Gandhi. Girri has been working for last two years in those areas and has been able to connect himself with people. The people are supportive to Rajmohan Gandhi and are excited about him but not at large scale.  His old age has also kept him away from campaigning aggressively. Sandeep Dikshit lagging far behind from both the candidates as his own party members seems to be working against him after his mother and former chief minister of Delhi Shelia Dikshit left the city.  The party legislators are working and block level members are working against him as they want him also to be sidelined like her mother.

South Delhi

In South Delhi, there is strong presence of and strong presence Jat and Gujjar community and they have declared their support for the BJP candidate Ramesh Bidhuri. His winning as Gujjar leader Ramveer Singh Bidhuri, who had joined BJP last year and was against Ramesh Bidhuri for quite long time, has now been working for him. Congress Sajjan Kumar's brother Ramesh Kumar has been considered as weak candidate this time after Sajjan Kumar has been sidelined by the Gandhi family. The vote of Jat community behind Sajjan Kumar has been divided between Congress and BJP.  The AAP colonel Devendar Sehrawat has limited popularity and only Delhi Cantonment voters are excited about him.

West

In west Delhi, the BJP candidate Parvesh Verma, former Chief Minister of Delhi Sahib Singh Verma, has caught imagination of rural people. He has support of all the local villagers most of Jat community. In Sikh dominated area, Punjab Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal will be campaigning in next few days to garner support for him and to divide the votes of the AAP candidate Jarnail Singh. Congress MP and three-time MLA Mahabal Mishra is having a tough time as people there are unhappy with him. The purvanchal voters have been divided this time.

New Delhi

Congress Ajay Maken is ahead of all the candidates in New Delhi area, though BJP Meenakshi Lekhi is working out very hard day and night to connect herself with the voters. Ajay Maken is favorite among voters due his clean image and proximity with Gandhi family. Seeing the hard work of Lekhi, the BJP high command has organised Narendra Modi rally at Ram Lila Ground on three days ahead of polling to galvanize the voters of New Delhi areas.  The journalist-turned-politician and Aam Aadmi Party candidate from the New Delhi Lok Sabha constituency Ashish Khetan is an unknown face for the people.

North East

At one side, the Bhojpuri actor and singer Manoj Tiwari has been successful in making the people believe that he is not outsider but a local resident but on the other side Congress J P Agarwal is also become an obvious choice for the people. ‘He has worked in his constituency and people are supporting him. There is tough fight between both of them and the winning margin would be very less, the report stated. For AAP candidate Anand Kumar, JNU students are working through day and night but they not have been able to make a mark in the constituency.  Interestingly, he has been working all alone with the support of AAP activist.

North West
 

AAP Rakhi Birla is winning from North West Delhi as BJP supporters are working against its own candidate Udit Raj. Rakhi Birla will win for sure but now with large margin, the report says. There is strong discontent among the party worker inside BJP over Udit Raj which has given clear verdict of AAP candidate who is local and have support base there.  The old horses -- Yogendra Chandoliya and Anita Arya from Northwest Delhi – are playing cards against Udit Raj. Congress leader Krishna Tirath is facing anti-incumbency factor. She was and no more a popular face there. She is losing by large numbers of votes, says reports.

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